positive expectation win bets. c div p er 1) 2) By the Harville formula (Harville ), the estimated probability of a 1,2 or. simple win betting ratios and the Harville formula). These indirect estimates would then be paired with the direct estimates (the betting ratios in the exacta pools). HARVILLE, D. A., “Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions,” J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., Vol. 68 (), pp. HAUSCH, D. B.
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I suspect I have made a silly error somewhere, but any help would be greatly appreciated. Select a Web Site Choose a web site to get translated content where available and see local events and offers.
Spot Jun 22 ’14 at 6: Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days. Jason 37 2 8. I hadn’t heard of a variation, but you certainly could adapt them to fit a particular race. I inadvertently added an additional SUM term to both equations in my original repy – apologies – never post mathematical equations to forum late at night! Isn’t that the normal Harville formula though, I understood that the discounted Harville was a modification of this to help counter the problem that as you say a horse may have no chance of winningbut high of placing or high chance of winning and none for placing.
However the sum of these probabilities does not add to one. Placing probability depends far more on the horses involved in a race than on the maths. There is some pretty interesting stuff there.
Their ‘Discounted Harville’ approach is relatively straightforward and can be adapted for use in Excel, for formulaa. I found it useful to use a 2D array for exacta prob. What I am doing is 0. I have included it in the last 35 races and it improves the results let’s see how long that last. Similarly, you have to sum over all trifectas where H3 shows to calculate the H3 show probability! I remember at least one attempt to use another model formuoa Harville, but with normal random variables instead.
Looking forward to reading and contributing more here, some of the old threads hold a lot of value. Ugly multivariate normal integrals to approximate. Used and abused by bookmakers and punters the world over. This calculates the probability of finishing 3rd for each horse. Should the results of this add up to 1? Contact Us – PaceAdvantage. It is mainly about the authors method of place and show betting which requires them to compute Harville probabilities.
Harville at the Georgetown U.
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Harville in Journal of the Amer. Harvil,e also have a few academic papers.
There is a harvllle number of academic papers on horse racing. Mwilding, If you have a database with public probabilities, you could have different coefficients than. Note that tractability issues arise because you have to sum over all exactas where H2 places in order to calculate the H2 place probability.
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Find More Posts by Midas Pansy. There are many valid critiques of this formula. Basically, you have probabilities for each horse winning.
It appears that Google deleted fomula original “Harville” spreadsheet from the blog some time ago, without requesting my permission? I’ve been so impressed with the level of knowledge here, I’ve no idea how I hadn’t found this forum before. So the corrections, for what they are worth, will vary. The probability of BA would be 0.
I’m not sure if jfdinneen or mwilding are still about, or if anyone else can help, but I decided to try in excel the formulas jfd contributed so generously below.
harville – File Exchange – MATLAB Central
Choose a web site to get translated content where available and see local events and offers. A consistent, satisficing approach is sufficient. Michael, As you say, it does not make any sense. I’m not sure if jfdinneen or mwilding are still about, or if anyone else uarville help, but I decided to try in excel the formulas jfd contributed so generously below.
This subject theory is very academic, rather than practical or true to life – as is typical of economists – it is better to assess each race as it comes and just be guided by the average corrections – which you may judge too high or low for a particular race. Formulae in Mathematical Notation Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days.
These are totally unrealistic assumptions but they do give reasonable values. Just had time to go through the top place equation. Spot, Thanks for your comprehensive answer.
As later posters have indicated, the empirical correction figures are averaged over a number of races for harviole particular set of racing. These days it seems even more difficult because the money bet off-track is not added to the tote board until after you can no longer make a bet. In my younger days, I tried to follow their method at the track. Find More Posts by mwilding Looking forward to reading and contributing more harvilel, some of the old threads hold a lot of value.